Frontiers and Challenges in the Study of Human Longevity

The Second HMD Symposium, June 13-14, 2008

Friday, June 13, 2008

8:30 am –9:00 am    Welcome and Introduction

   John Wilmoth – Director of HMD, University of California, Berkeley

    Vladimir Shkolnikov – Co-Director of HMD, MPIDR

9:00 am – 10:15 am     I – National and Regional Mortality Patterns and Trends

1. Mortality and population trends in Austria since the 1924-1951, Dimitri Jdanov (MPIDR), Dalkhat Ediev (Vienna Institute of Demography), Domantas Jasilionis (MPIDR), and Richard Gisser (Vienna Institute of Demography).   Paper

2. Mortality trends in the UK and Ireland, Domantas Jasilionis (MPIDR).   Presentation

3. Regional mortality differences in Germany, Rembrandt Scholz. Dmitri Jdanov. and Domantas Jasilionis (MPIDR).  Presentation

10:15am – 10:30 am   Coffee break

10:30 am – 11:15 am     II – Investigating mortality crises

4. Contrasting Developments of the Recent Mortality Trends in Belarus, Lithuania and Russia, Pavel Grigoriev (MPIDR).   Abstract/Paper

5. Weather conditions, air quality and seasonal patterns of mortality, Zhongwei Zhao (Australian National University).  Abstract/Paper

11:15 am – 12:30 am    III – Sex Differences in Health and Longevity

6. Cause-of-death contributions to gains in e0 and narrowing of the sex gap among eight high-income countries since 1975, Dana Glei (UC Berkeley).  Abstract/Paper

7. Narrowing Sex Differential in Life Expectancy in Canada: Immigrant and Canadian Born Populations, Frank Trovato (University of Alberta, Canada) and David Odynak (University of Alberta, Canada)  Abstract/Paper

12:30 am – 2:00 pm     Lunch (provided at MPIDR)

2:00pm – 3:00 pm     IV – Age Patterns of Mortality – Part 1

8. Monitoring mortality trends at advanced ages: An update of the Kannisto study, Domantas Jasilionis (MPIDR), Roland Rau (MPIDR), Eugeny Soroko (MPIDR), and James Vaupel (MPIDR).   Presentation

9. Explaining small-area mortality variation among pensioners in Germany: the effect of individual characteristics and context, Eva Kibele (MPIDR).  Abstract/Paper

10. Age patterns of older adults’ mortality change, Shiro Horiuchi (City University of New York).

3:00 pm – 3:15 pm   Coffee break

3:15 pm – 4:30 pm     V – Age Patterns of Mortality – Part 2

11. Variability of length of life in the United States, Vladimir Shkolnikov (MPIDR), Evgueni Andreev (MPIDR), Zhang Zhen (MPIDR), James Vaupel (MPIDR).

12. Age patterns of change: towards a dynamic standard for coherent mortality forecasting, Heather Booth (Australian National University).  Abstract/Paper

13. Beyond material explanations: The Second Demographic Transition and mortality, Jon Anson (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel).   Abstract/Paper

7:00pm                    Complimentary banquet

Saturday, June 14, 2008

9:30am – 10:30 am     VI – Potentials and Limitations of Cause-of-Death Data – Part 1

14. Comparing long-term trends in causes of death in Western Europe, Stein Emil Vollset (University of Bergen, Norway).  Paper

15. Methodological issues and results of the transition to ICD10 in West Germany, Markéta Pechholdova (INED).  Presentation   Abstract/Paper

16. Transition from the 9^th to the 10^th ICD in France in the absence of sufficient bridge-coding. What can we get from the United States and the United Kingdom experiences? Are there any other pathways? Jacques Vallin (INED, France) and France Meslé (INED, France).

10:30 am – 11:00 am   Coffee break

11:00 am – 12:00 am VII – Potentials and Limitations of Cause-of-Death Data – Part 2

17. Comparing long-term trends in cardiovascular mortality in three developed countries Magali Barbieri (UC Berkeley) and France Meslé (INED, France).   Abstract/Paper

18. Automating the redistribution of deaths by cause over ICD changes: How far can we go? Carl Boe (UC Berkeley), Robert Chung (UC Berkeley), and Magali Barbieri (UC Berkeley).  Presentation

12:00 am – 1:30 pm     Lunch (provided at MPIDR)

1:30 pm – 3:15 pm     VIII – Assessing the uncertainty of Mortality and Fertility Estimates – Part 1

19. A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation, John Wilmoth (UC Berkeley), Vladimir Canudas-Romo (Johns Hopkins University), and Sarah Zureick (UC Berkeley).   Abstract/Paper

20. Estimation of Confidence Intervals for Life Table funtions, Evgueni Andreev (MPIDR), Dmitri Jdanov (MPIDR), Domantas Jasilionis (MPIDR).   Abstract

21. Sources of uncertainty in trends of under 5 mortality: stochastic variation, models and bias, Jon Pedersen (University of Oslo).

22. Uncertainty Assessment of the Total Fertility Rate in Western Africa, Leontine Alkema (University of Washington), Adrian E. Raftery Alkema (University of Washington), Patrick Gerland (Population Division of the United Nations), Samuel J. Clark (University of Washington), and Francois Pelletier (Population Division of the United Nations).   Abstract/Paper

3:15pm – 3:30 pm   Coffee break

3:30 pm – 5:00 pm   IX – The Human Fertility Database: Overview and Brainstorming

23. The Human Fertility Project: data, methods and implementation, Aiva Jasilioniene (MPIDR), Joshua Goldstein (MPIDR), Vladimir Shkolnikov (MPIDR), Tomas Sobotka (MPIDR), Evguieni Andreev (MPIDR), Dmitri Jdanov (MPIDR).

24. Comments by Laurent Toulemon (INED, France) and John Wilmoth (MPIDR).