Working Papers Repository

Aging-Related Recent Papers

Michael Anderson Alan Auerbach Carl Boe Judith Campisi David Card James Carey Edward Caswell-Chen Ralph Catalano Kenneth Chay Thomas Davidoff Stefano Dellavigna Ryan Edwards Paul Gertler Eugene Hammel Andrew Hildreth Michael Hout Chad Jones Charles Jones James Jones Ronald Lee

David Levine Nan Li Andrew Mason Daniel McFadden Edward Miguel Douglas Miller David Levine Timothy Miller John Morgan Steven Orzack Robert Page John Quigley Olav Rueppell William Satariano David Steinsaltz Shripad Tuljapurkar Kenneth Wachter John Wilmoth

Michael Anderson

1. Lee, Ronald; Anderson, Michael; and Tuljapurkar, Shripad. 2003. Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund, A Report for the Social Security Administration
2. M. Anderson, R. Lee, and S. Tuljapurkar. (1999) "Chances Are: Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund and Attempts to Save It," Paper presented at the 1999 Conference on Retirement Research, Center for Retirement Research, Boston College. Also presented at 1998 Population Association of America meetings in New York. Working paper, Mountain View Research, Inc. 1999.
3. M. Anderson, N. li, and S. Tuljapurkar. (2000) "Stochastic population forecasts for the G-7 Countries," report for the Global Aging Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in "Demographic Risk in Industrial Societies: Independent Population Forecasts for the G-7 Countries," World Economics, v. 1, n. 4.
4. M. Anderson, R. Lee, and S. Tuljapurkar. (2000) "Stochastic Modeling of the Dynamics of OASDI," Prepared for presentation at the Second Annual Joint Conference for the Retirement Research Consortium, "The Outlook for Retirement Income," May 17-18, 2000 in Washington, DC.
5. M. Anderson, S. Tuljapurkar, and H. Yamagata. (2001) "Stochastic Rates of Return for Social Security Under Various Policy Scenarios", Working Paper Series, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
6. M. Anderson, N. li, and S. Tuljapurkar. (2001) "How Accurate Are Demographic Projections Used in Forecasting Pension Expenditure?" in T. Boeri, A. Brugiavini, et al. (Eds.), Pensions: More Information, Less Ideology, Kluwer: The Netherlands.
7. M. Anderson and R. Lee. (2002) "Malthus in State Space: Macro Economic-Demographic Relations in English History," Journal of Population Economics, v. 15, pp.195-220
8. R. Lee, M. Anderson and S. Tuljapurkar. (2003) "Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund," A Report for the Social Security Administration.

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Alan Auerbach

1. Alan J. Auerbach “The Fiscal Gap and Retirement Saving Revisited,” Tax Notes, July 26, 2004, 431–37 (with William Gale and Peter Orszag).
2. Alan J. Auerbach “The 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts: A Response to Jenn and Marron,” Tax Notes, September
3. 6, 2004, 1095–98 (with William Gale and Peter Orszag).
4. Alan J. Auerbach (2004) "How Much Equity Does the Government Hold?" American Economic Review, May 2004, 155-160.
5. Alan J. Auerbach “The U.S. Fiscal Gap and Retirement Saving,” OECD Economic Studies, forthcoming (with William Gale and Peter Orszag).
6. Alan J. Auerbach “The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap,” American Economic Review, March 2005, forthcoming (with Maurice Obstfeld).
7. Alan J. Auerbach “The Fiscal Burden of Korean Reunification: A Generational Accounting Approach,” FinanzArchiv, forthcoming (with Young Jun Chun and Ilho Yoo).
8. Alan J. Auerbach “Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issues,” American Economic Review, May 2005, forthcoming.
9. Alan J. Auerbach “Generational Accounting in Korea,” Journal of Japanese and International Economies, forthcoming (with Young Jun Chun).
10. Alan J. Auerbach “Budget Windows, Sunsets, and Fiscal Control,” Journal of Public Economics, forthcoming.
11. A. Auerbach, L. Kotlikoff, and W. Leibfritz, Eds. (1999) Generational Accounting Around the World. University of Chicago Press, 1999.
12. A. Auerbach and L. Kotlikoff (1999) "The Methodology of Generational Accounting," in A. Auerbach, L. Kotlikoff and W. Leibfritz (Eds.), Generational Accounting Around the World, pp. 31-41.
13. A. Auerbach, J. Braz, J. de Macedo, L. Kotlikoff, and J. Walliser. (1999) "Generational Accounting in Portugal," in A. Auerbach, L. Kotlikoff and W. Leibfritz (Eds.), Generational Accounting Around the World, pp. 471-88.
14. A. Auerbach, L. E. Burman, and J. M. Siegel. (2000) "Capital Gains Taxation and Tax Avoidance: New Evidence from Panel Data," in J. Slemrod (Ed.), Does Atlas Shrug? The Economic Consequences of Taxing the Rich, pp. 355-88.
15. A. Auerbach and P. Oreopoulos. (2000) "The Fiscal Effects of U.S. Immigration: A Generational-Accounting Perspective," in J. Poterba (Ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, v. 14, pp. 123-56.
16. A. Auerbach and K. Hassett. (2000) "Uncertainty and the Design of Long Run Fiscal Policy," in A. Auerbach and R. Lee (Eds.), Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy, pp. 73-92.
17. A. Auerbach and R. Lee, Eds. (2001) Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy, Cambridge University Press, 2001.

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Carl Boe

1. Rosa G ómez-Redondo and Carl Boe (2005) Decomposition Analysis Of Spanish Life Expectancy at Birth: Evolution and changes in the components by sex and age. Demographic Research, TO APPEAR.
2. G ó mez-Redondo, R.; Boe, C. (2004) 'Tendencias de mortalidad en la poblaci ó n espa ñ ola: Longevidad creciente, juventud recuperada y hacia la convergencia por sexo,'' Fundacion Abril Martorell, p. 101--129
3. S. Tuljapurkar and C. Boe (1999) Validation, Probability-weighted priors , and information in stochastic forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 259-271.
4. S. Tuljapurkar, N. li and C. Boe (2000) Is There a Universal Pattern of Mortality Decline? Evidence and Forecasts for the G7-Countries, Nature, Vol 405, No 789, pp. 789-792.
5. Ryan D. Edwards, Mike W. Anderson, Shripad Tuljapurkar, and Carl Boe (2003) Key equations in the Tuljapurkar-Lee model of the Social Security system, paper prepared for a roundtable on stochastic forecasts of the U.S. Social Security system, Washington, D.C., April 3.

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Judith Campisi

1. Busuttil RA, Dolle M, Campisi J, Vijg J. Genomic instability, aging, and cellular senescence. Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence: Why Genuine Control of Aging may be Foreseeable 2004;1019:245-255.
2. Butler RN, Warner HR, Williams TF, Austad SN, Brody JA, Campisi J, et al. The aging factor in health and disease: The promise of basic research on aging. Aging Clinical and Experimental Research 2004 APR;16(2):104-111.
3. Campisi J. Senescent cells, tumor suppression, and organismal aging: Good citizens, bad neighbors. Cell 2005 FEB 25;120(4):513-522.
4. (Campisi J. Aging, tumor suppression and cancer: high wire-act! Mechanisms of ageing and development 2005 JAN;126(1):51-58.
5. Campisi J. Cellular senescence, cancer and aging. Molecular biology of the cell 2004 NOV;15:354A-354A.
6. Campisi J. Fragile fugue: p53 in aging, cancer and IGF signaling. Nature medicine 2004 MAR;10(3):231-232.
7. Chiang YJ, Kim SH, Tessarollo L, Campisi J, Hodes RJ. Telomere-associated protein TIN2 is essential for early embryonic development through a telomerase-independent pathway. Molecular and cellular biology 2004 AUG;24(15):6631-6634.
8. Itahana K, Campisi J, Dimri GP. Mechanisms of cellular senescence in human and mouse cells. Biogerontology 2004;5(1):1-10.
9. Kenyon C, Campisi J, Wallace D. From worms to mammals: The regulation of lifespan by insulin/IGF-1 signaling. Molecular biology of the cell 2004 NOV;15:354A-354A.
10. Kim S, Beausejour C, Davalos AR, Kaminker P, Heo SJ, Campisi J. TIN2 mediates functions of TRF2 at human telomeres. Journal of Biological Chemistry 2004 OCT 15;279(42):43799-43804.
11. Rodier F, Kim SH, Nijjar T, Yaswen P, Campisi J. Cancer and aging: the importance of telomeres in genome maintenance. International Journal of Biochemistry & Cell Biology 2005 MAY;37(5):977-990.
12. Rubio MA, Davalos AR, Campisi J. Telomere length mediates the effects of telomerase on the cellular response to genotoxic stress. Experimental cell research 2004 AUG 1;298(1):17-27.
13. Kaminker PG, Kim SH, Taylor RD, Zebarjadian Y, Funk W, Morin G, Yaswen P, Campisi J. (2001) TANK2, a new TRF1-associated PARP, causes rapid cell death upon overexpression. J Biol Chem 276: 35891-35899.
14. Itahana K, Dimri G, Campisi J. (2001) Regulation of cellular senescence by p53. Eur J Biochem 268: 2784-2791
15. Krtolica A, Parrinello S, Lockett S, Desprez P, Campisi J. (2001) Senescent fibroblasts promote epithelial cell growth and tumorigenesis: A link between cancer and aging. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98: 12072-12077.
16. Campisi J. (2001) Cellular senescence as a tumor suppressor mechanism. Trends in Cell Bio 11: 27-31.
17. Parrinello S, lin C Q, Murata K, Itahana Y, Singh J, Krtolica A, Campisi J, Desprez P Y (2001) Id-1, ITF-2 and Id-2 comprise a network of helix-loop-helix proteins that regulate mammary epithelial cell proliferation, differentiation and apoptosis. J Biol Chem 276: 39213-39219.
18. lim CS, Mian IS, Dernburg A, Campisi J. (2001) C. elegans clk-2, a gene that limits life span, encodes a telomere length regulator similar to yeast telomere binding protein Tel2p. Curr Biol 11: 1706-1710.
19. Oshima J, Huang S, Pae C, Lee L, Campisi J, Schiestl RH. (2002) Lack of WRN facilitates extensive deletion at non-homologous joining ends. Cancer Res 62: 547-551.
20. Itahana K, Dimri G P, Hara E, Itahana Y, Desprez P, Campisi J. (2002) A role for p53 in maintaining and establishing the quiescence growth arrest in human cells. J Biol Chem 277: 18206-18214.
21. Rubio MA. Kim SH, Campisi J. (2002) Reversible manipulation of telomerase expression and telomere length: Implications for the ionizing radiation response and replicative senescence of human cells. J Biol Chem 277: 28609-28617.
22. Kim SH, Kaminker PG, Campisi J. (2002) Telomeres, cancer and aging: In search of a happy ending. Oncogene 21: 503-511.
23. Dimri GP, Martinez JL, Jacobs J, Keblusek P, Itahana K, van Lohuizen M, Campisi J, Wazer DE, Band V. (2002) The BMI-1 oncogene induces telomerase and immortalizes human mammary epithelial cells. Cancer Res 62: 4736-4745.
24. Itahana K, Zou Y, Itahana Y, Martinez JL, Beausejour C, Jacobs J, van Lohuizen M, Band V, Campisi J, Dimri GP. (2003) Control of the replicative life span of human fibroblasts by p16 and the polycomb protein BMI-1. Molec Cell Biol 23: 389-401.
25. Campisi J. (2003) Cellular senescence and apoptosis: How cellular responses may influence aging phenotypes. Exp. Gerontol 38: 5-11.
26. Hasty P, Campisi J, Hoeijmakers J, van Steeg H, Vijg J. (2003) Aging and genome maintenance: Lessons from the mouse? Science 299: 1355-1359.
27. Kim SH, Parrinello S, Kim, J Campisi (2003) Mus musculus and Mus spretus homologues of the human telomere associated protein TIN2. Genomics 81: 422-432.
28. Campisi J. (2003) Cancer and ageing: Rival demons? Nature Cancer Rev 3: 339-349.
29. Kim SH, Han S, Chen DJ, Campisi J. (2003) The human telomere-associated protein TIN2 stimulates interactions between telomeric DNA tracts in vitro. EMBO Rep 4: 685-691.
30. Parrinello S, Samper E, Krtolica A, Goldstein J, Melov S, Campisi J (2003) Oxygen sensitivity severely limits the replicative life span of murine cells. Nature Cell Biol 5: 741-747.
31. Beausejour CM, Krtolica A, Galimi F, Narita M, Lowe S, Yaswen Y, Campisi J. (2003) Reversal of human cellular senescence: Roles of the p53 and p16 pathways. EMBO J 22:4212-4222.
32. Chen LJ, Huang S, Lee L, Davalos A, Schiestl R, Campisi J, Oshima J. (2003) WRN, the protein deficient in Werner syndrome, plays a critical structural role in optimizing DNA repair. Aging Cell 2: 191-199.
33. Dimri GP, Acosta M, Itahana K, Campisi J. (under revision) Regulation of a senescence checkpoint by the E2F1 transcription factor and p14 tumor suppressor. Molec. Cell. Bio.
34. Xu W, Gong L, Haddad MM, Bischof O, Campisi J, Yeh ETH, Medrano EE. (under revision) Regulation of Microphtalmia-associated transcription factor MITF by association with the ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme hUBC9. Exp. Cell Res.
35. Kim SH, Kaminker P, Campisi J. (under revision) Tin2, a novel human telomere-associated protein and negative regulator of telomerase. Nature Genetics.

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David Card

1. David Card (with Dean R. Hyslop) July 2004, NBER working paper #10647 "Estimating the Effects of a Time Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare Leavers".
2. David Card and Alan B. Krueger (March 2004) NBER working paper #10366, "Would the Elimination of Affirmative Action Affect Highly Qualified Minority Applicants? Evidence from California and Texas."
3. David Card, Carlos Dobkin, and Nicole Maestas (March 2004) NBER working paper #10365 "The Impact of Nearly Universal Insurance Coverage on Health Care Utilization and Health: Evidence from Medicare."
4. D. Card and O. Ashenfelter. (2002) "Did the Elimination of Mandatory Retirement Affect Faculty Retirement Flows?" American Economic Review , v. 92.
5. D Card, A Hildreth, LD Shore-Sheppard. (2001) The Measurement of Medicaid Coverage in the SIPP: Evidence from California, 1990-1996. NBER Working Paper No. w8514
6. (with Orley Ashenfelter). How Did the Elimination of Mandatory Retirement Affect Faculty Retirement Rates? UC Berkeley Center for Labor Economics Working Paper #25, August 2000.
7. D. Card and Thomas Lemieux (2000) Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis. NBER Working Paper No. w7655

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James Carey

1. Carey, J. R. 2005. Biodemography. In: Ed. Encyclopedia of Sociology. Blackwell Publishing.
2. Carey, J. R. 2005. Life expectancy. In: Ed. Salkind, N. Encyclopedia of Human Development. pp. in press. San Diego: Sage Reference.
3. Carey, J. R., Liedo, P., M?ller, H.-G., Wang, J.-L., Zhang, Y., and Harshman, L. 2005. Stochastic dietary restriction using a Markov-chain feeding protocol elicits complex, life history response in medflies. Aging Cell 4, 31-39.
4. Carey, J. R., and Papadopoulos, N. 2005. The medfly as a frailty model: Implications for biodemographic research. In: Ed. Robine, J-M. Frailty and Longevity. Paris: IPSEN Foundation. (in press)
5. Carey, J. R., and Vaupel, J. W. 2005. Biodemography. In: Ed. Ed. Robine, J-M. Frailty and Longevity. Paris: IPSEN, Foundation. (in press).
6. Carey, J. R., and Vaupel, J. W. 2005. Biodemography. In: Ed. Poston, D, & Micklin, M. Handbook of Population. In press. New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.
7. Mueller, H. G., Wang, J.-L., Carey, J. R., Caswell-Chen, E. P., Chen, C., Papadopoulos, N., and Yao, F. 2004. Demographic window to aging in the wild: Constructing life tables and estimating survival functions from marked individuals of unknown age. Aging Cell 3, 125-131.
8. Novoseltsev VN, Carey JR, Liedo P, Novoseltseva P, and Yashin AI. 2004. "Anticipation of oxidative damage decelerates aging in virgin female medflies: hypothesis tested by statistical modeling," Experimental Gerontology 35. 971-987.
9. Novoseltsev, V. N., Carey, J. R., Novoseltseva, J. A., Papapopoulos, N. T., Blay, S., and Yashin, A. I. 2004. Systemic mechanisms of individual reproductive life history in female medflies. Mechanisms of Ageing and Development 125, 77-87.
10. Papadopoulos, N. T., Katsoyannos, B. I., Kouloussis, N. A., Carey, J. R., Mueller, H.-G., and Zhang, Y. 2004. High sexual calling rates predicts extended life span in male Mediterranean fruit flies. Oecologia 138, 127-134.
11. Romanyukha, A. A., Carey, J. R., Karkach, A. S., and Yashin, A. I. 2004. The impact of diet switching on resource allocation to reproduction and longevity in Mediterranean fruit flies. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, in press.
12. Rueppell, O., Amdam, G. V., Page, R. E., and Carey, J. R. 2004. From genes to societies. Science Aging Knowledge Environment 5, pp. pe5.
13. Carey JR, liedo P. (1999) Measuring mortality and reproduction in large cohorts of the Mediterranean fruit fly. In: Studies of Aging (Sternberg, H, & Timiras, PS, Eds.) pp 111-124, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
14. Carey JR, liedo P. (1999) Mortality dynamics of insects: general principles derived from aging research on the Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae). American Entomologist 45, 49-55.
15. Carey JR, liedo P, Müller H-G, Wang J-L, Chiou J-M. (1999) Mortality oscillations induced by periodic starvation alter sex-mortality differentials in Mediterranean fruit flies. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences 54A, B424-B431.
16. Carey JR, Judge DS. (2000) Longevity Records: life Spans of Mammals, Birds, Reptiles, Amphibians and Fishes, Vol. 8, Odense University Press, Odense, Denmark.
17. Carey JR, Judge DS. (2000) The mortality dynamics of aging. Generations 24, 19-24.
18. Judge DS, Carey JR. (2000) Post-reproductive life predicted by primate patterns. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences 55A, B201-B209.
19. Novoseltsev VN, Carey JR, liedo P, Novoseltseva P, Yashin AI. (2000) Anticipation of oxidative damage decelerates aging in virgin female medflies: hypothesis tested by statistical modeling. Experimental Gerontology 35, 971-987.
20. Carey JR, Judge DS. (2001) life span extension in humans is self-reinforcing: a general theory of longevity. Population and Development Review 27, 411-436.
21. Carey JR, Judge DS. (2001) Principles of biodemography with special reference to human longevity. Population: An English Selection 13, 9-40.
22. Carey JR. (2001) Demographic mechanisms for the evolution of long life in social insects. Experimental Gerontology 36, 713-722.
23. Carey JR. (2001) Genetics of longevity. In: International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioral Sciences (Smelser, NJ, & Baltes, PB, Eds.) pp 9052-9057, Pergamon, Oxford.
24. Carey JR, Adams J. (2001) The preadaptive role of parental care in the evolution of avian flight. Archaeopteryx 19, 97-108.
25. Chen J, Carey JR, Ferris H. (2001) Comparative demography of isogenic populations of Caenorhabditis elegans. Experimental Gerontology 36, 431-440.
26. Müller HG, Carey JR, Wu D, Vaupel JW. (2001) Reproductive potential determines longevity of female Mediterranean fruitflies. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London B 268, 445-450.
27. Carey JR, liedo P, Müller H-G, Wang J-L, Love B, Harshman L, Partridge. L. (2001) Female sensitivity to diet and irradiation treatments underlies sex-mortality differentials in the Mediterranean fruit fly. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences 56A, B1-B5.
28. Carey, J. R. and J. Adams. 2001. The preadaptive role of parental care in the evolution of avian flight. Archaeopteryx, 19, pp. 97-108
29. Carey JR. (2002) Longevity minimalists: life table studies of two northern Michigan adult mayflies. Experimental Gerontology 37, 567-570.
30. Carey JR. (2002) Theories of life span and aging. In: Physiological Basis of Aging and Geriatrics (Timiras, PS, Ed.), CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida.
31. Papadopoulos NT, Carey JR, Katsoyannos BI, Kouloussis NA, Müller H-G, liu X. (2002) Supine behaviour predicts time-to-death in male Mediterranean fruit flies. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences 269, 1633-1637.
32. Papadopoulos NT, Katsoyannos BI, Carey JR. (2002) Demographic parameters of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared in apples. Annals of the Entomological Society of America 95, 564-569.
33. Müller H-G, Chiou J-M, Carey JR, Wang J-L. (2002) Fertility and lifespan: Late children enhance female longevity. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences 57A, B202-B206.
34. Carey JR, liedo P, Harshman L, liu X, Müller H-G, Partridge L, Wang J-L. (2002) Food pulses increase longevity and induce cyclical egg production in Mediterranean fruit flies. Functional Ecology 16, 313-325.
35. Carey JR, liedo P, Harshman L, Müller H-G, Partridge L, Wang J-L, Zhang Y. (2002) life history response of Mediterranean fruit flies to dietary restriction. Aging Cell 1, 140-148.
36. Carey JR, liedo P, Harshman L, Zhang Y, Müller H-G, Partridge L, Wang J-L. (2002) A mortality cost of virginity at older ages in female Mediterranean fruit flies. Experimental Gerontology 37, 507-512.
37. Carey JR. (2003) life span. In: Encyclopedia of Population (Demeny, P, & McNicoll, G, Eds.) pp 590-594, Macmillan Reference USA, New York.
38. Carey JR. (2003) life span: A conceptual overview. In: life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives (Carey, JR, & Tuljapurkar, S, Eds.) pp 1-18, Supplement to Population and Development Review 29, New York: Population Council.
39. Carey JR. (2003) Longevity. The Biology and Demography of life Span, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
40. Carey JR, Tuljapurkar S. (2003) life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological and Demographic Perspectives. pp 320, Population and Development Review, New York.
41. Cargill SL, Carey JR, Müller H-G, Anderson G. (2003) Age of ovary determines remaining life expectancy in old ovariectomized mice. Aging Cell 2, 185-190.
42. Vaupel JW, Carey JR, Christensen K. (2003) It's never too late. Science 301, 1679-1680.
43. Carey, J. R. Biodemographic determinants of longevity: From medflies to Humans. Princeton University Press (inproduction)Press (in production)
44. Papadopoulos, N. T, J. R. Carey, B. Katsoyannos, N. A. Kouloussas, H.-G. Müller, and X. liu. Supine behavior indicates deteriorating health and impending death in male Mediterranean fruit flies (submitted)
45. Müller, H.-G., J.-M. Chiou, J. R. Carey, and J.-L. Wang. Fertility and lifespan: late children enhance female longevity. Journal of Gerontology (submitted).
46. Carey, J. R., Pablo liedo, Lawrence Harshman, Ying Zhang, Hans-George Müller, linda Partridge, and Jane-ling Wang. A mortality cost of virginity at older ages in female Mediterranean fruit flies. Experimental Gerontology (in press).
47. Carey, J. R., Pablo liedo, Lawrence Harshman, Xueli liu, Hans-George Müller, linda Partridge, and Jane-ling Wang. Food pulses increase longevity and induce cyclical egg production in Mediterranean fruit flies. Functional Ecology (in press)
48. Carey, J. R. Longevity minimalists: life table studies of two northern Michigan adult mayflies. Experimental Gerontology (in press)
49. J.-M. Chiou, H.-G. Müller, J.-L. Wang, J. R. Carey. A functional multiplicative effects model for longitudinal data, with application to reproductive histories of female medflies. Statistica Sinica, forthcoming

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Edward Caswell-Chen

1. Rubin, E. S., W. M. Boyce, and E. P. Caswell-Chen. 2002. Modeling demographic processes in an endangered population of Bighorn Sheep. Journal of Wildlife Management 66:796-810.

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Ralph Catalano

1. Catalano R, Frank J, "Detecting the Effect of Medical Care on Mortality", Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, In press
2. Catalano R, Hansen H, "Using time-series analyses to detect the health effects of medical care reforms: A Norwegian example", Social Science and Medicine, In press
3. Catalano, R., & McConnell, W. (1999). Psychiatric Emergencies: The check effect revisited. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 40, 79-86.
4. Vega, W., Kolody, B., Aguilar-Glaxo, S., & Catalano, R. (1999). Gaps in services utilization by Mexican Americans with mental health problems. American Journal of Psychiatry, 156, 928-934.
5. Catalano, R., lind, S., Rosenblatt, A., & Attkisson, C. (1999). Unemployment and Foster Home Placements: Estimating the Net Effect of Provocation and Inhibition. American Journal of Public Health, 89, 851-856.
6. Catalano, R., Hansen, H., & Hartig, T. (1999). The ecological effect of unemployment on the incidence of very low birthweight in Norway and Sweden. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 40, 422-428.
7. Catalano, R., & Pickett, K. (2000). A Taxonomy of Research Concerned with place and health. Pp 64-83 In G. Albrecht, R. Fitzpatrick, & S. Scrimshaw (Eds.), Handbook of Social Studies in Health and Medicine. London: Sage.
8. Catalano; R., Aldrete, E., Vega, W., Kolody, B., & Aguilar-Gaxiola, S. (2000). Job loss and major depression among Mexican Americans. Social Science Quarterly, 81, 477-487.
9. Catalano, R. (2000). Economic factors and stress. In G. Fink (Ed.) Encyclopedia of Stress. New York: Academic Press
10. Dooley, D., Catalano, R. (2000). Group interventions and the limits of behavioral medicine. Behavioral Medicine, 26, 116-128.
11. Catalano, R., McConnell, W., Forster, P., McFarland, B., Shumway, M., & Thornton, D. (2000). Does the disbursement of income increase psychiatric emergencies involving drugs and alcohol? Health Services Research, 35, 813-823.
12. Catalano, R., libby, A., Snowden, L., & Evans-Cuellar, A. (2000). The effect of capitated financing on mental health services for children and youth: the colorado experience. American Journal of Public Health, 90, 1861-1865.
13. Catalano, R., & Hansen, H. (2001). Using time-series analyses to detect the health effects of medical care reforms: a Norwegian example. Social Science and Medicine, 53, 1037-1043.
14. Catalano, R., & Hartig, T. (2001). Communal bereavement and the incidence of very low birthweight in Sweden. Journal of Health and Social Behavior, 42, 333-341.
15. Catalano, R., & Frank, J. (2001). Detecting the effect of medical care on mortality. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 54, 830-836.
16. Catalano, R., Novaco, R., & McConnell, W. (2002). Layoffs and violence revisited. Aggressive Behavior. 28:233–247.
17. Catalano, R. (2002). Economic antecedents of mortality among the very old. Epidemiology,13:133-137.
18. Catalano, R., Satariano, W., & Ciemins, E. (2003). Unemployment and the Detection of Early Stage Breast Tumors Among African Americans and Non-Hispanic Whites. Annals of Epidemiology, 13:8-16.
19. Catalano, R., McConnell, W., Forster, P., McFarland, B., & Thornton, D. (2003). Psychiatric Emergency Services and the System of Care. Psychiatric Services, 54:351-355.
20. Ong, M., Catalano, R., & Hartig, T. (2003). The Effect Of Increased Co-payments On Prescriptions For Antidepressants, Anxiolytics, and Sedatives In Sweden. Clinical Therapeutics, 25: 1262-1275.
21. Dooley, D., & Catalano, R. (2003). Intoduction to unemployment and its social costs. American Journal of Community Psychology, 32:1-7.
22. Catalano, R., lind, S., Rosenblatt, A., & Novaco, R. (2003). Economic antecedents of foster care. American Journal of Community Psychology, 32:47-56.
23. Catalano, R., Winett, L., Wallack, L., & Satariano, W. (2003). An evaluation of a campaign to detect early breast cancers in the United States. European Journal of Epidemiology, 18:545-550.
24. Catalano, R. & Kessell, E. (2003). Housing Policy and Health. Journal of Social Issues, 59:637-649.
25. Catalano, R. (2003). Sex ratios in the two Germanies: A test of the economic stress hypothesis. Human Reproduction, 18:1972-1975.

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Kenneth Chay

1. K. Chay and M. Greenstone. (2000) "The Convergence in Black-White Infant Mortality Rates during the 1960s," American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2000, pp. 326-332.
2. D. Almond, K. Chay, and M. Greenstone. (2001) "Civil Rights, the War on Poverty, and Black-White Convergence in Infant Mortality in Mississippi," mimeograph, University of California, Berkeley, September 2001.
3. K. Chay, C. Dobkin, and M. Greenstone. (2003) "The Clean Air Act of 1970 and Adult Mortality," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, v. 27, n. 3, pp. 279-300.
4. D. Almond and K. Chay. (2003) "The Long-Run and Intergenerational Impact of Poor Infant Health: Evidence from Cohorts Born During the Civil Rights Era," mimeograph, University of California, Berkeley, April 2003.

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Thomas Davidoff

1. Essays on Annuitization and Housing Choice (2002). Dissertation, MIT.
2. Annuities and Individual Welfare (Joint with Jeffrey Brown and Peter Diamond), (2003) NBER Working Paper No. w9714
3. Maintenance and the Home Equity of the Elderly (Preliminary), (2003) working paper, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley.

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Stefano Dellvigna

1. Stefano DellaVigna (2005) "Job Search and Impatience," (with Daniele Paserman), Journal ofLabor Economics, July 2005.
2. Stefano DellaVigna Contract Design and Self-Control: Theory and Evidence (with Ulrike Malmendier), Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2004, Vol. 119, pp. 353-402 (lead article.)
3. "Contract Design and Self-Control: Theory and Evidence," (with Ulrike Malmendier), forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics. "Overestimating Self-Control: Evidence from the Health Club Industry," (with Ulrike Malmendier), mimeo, Harvard University.
4. "Job Search and Impatience," (with Daniele Paserman), forthcoming in Journal of Labor Economics.
5. "Learning to Make Risk Neutral Choices in a Symmetric World," (with Marco liCalzi), Mathematical Social Sciences, 41(1), Jan. 2001, pp. 19-37.

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Ryan Edwards

1. Ronald Lee and Ryan Edwards (2001) "The Fiscal Impact of Population Change," in Jane Sneddon little and Robert K. Triest, eds., Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series No. 46, pp. 220-237.
2. Ryan D. Edwards (2002) Risk-Taking and Differential Mortality, unpublished working paper, April.
3. Ronald Lee and Ryan Edwards (2002) "The Fiscal Effects of Population Aging in the US: Assessing the Uncertainties," James M. Poterba, ed., Tax Policy and Economy v.16 (NBER: MIT Press, 2002) pp. 141-181.
4. Ryan D. Edwards and Naohiro Ogawa (2003) old-age Health and Mortality Patterns in Japan and the U.S. unpublished working paper, September.
5. Ryan D. Edwards (2003) International Distributions of the Age at Death and Mortality Convergence, unpublished working paper, September.
6. Ryan D. Edwards (2003) Mortality Decline and Economic Growth in Industrialized Countries, paper presented at the 2003 Annual Meetings of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, May 1.
7. Ryan D. Edwards (2003) Health Risk and Portfolio Choice, unpublished working paper, February.
8. Ryan D. Edwards, Mike W. Anderson, Shripad Tuljapurkar, and Carl Boe (2003) Key equations in the Tuljapurkar-Lee model of the Social Security system, paper prepared for a roundtable on stochastic forecasts of the U.S. Social Security system, Washington, D.C., April 3.
9. Ryan D. Edwards, Ronald D. Lee, and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2003) Stochastic Fiscal Projections with Cyclical and Long-Term Uncertainty, paper prepared for the Symposium on Global Income Growth in the 21st Century, Honolulu, HI, January 9-10.
10. Ryan D. Edwards, Ronald D. Lee, and Tim Miller (2003) "The Growth and Aging of California's Population: Demographic and Fiscal Projections, Characteristics and Service Needs," A California Policy Research Center special report.

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Paul Gertler

1. Gertler P. (2000) Insuring the Economic Costs of Illness in Developing Countries, forthcoming in N Lustig (ed) Social Saftey Nets and Poverty Brookings, Washington DC
2. J Peabody and P Gertler. (2002) Financing Health Care in an Aging Society, forthcoming in Chee-Ruey and Hu (ed.) The Economics of Health in Asia Oxford University Press
3. Gertler P and J Zeitlin. (2002 )Do Childhood Investments in Education and Nutrition Improve Adult Health?, Forthcoming on Chee-Ruey and Hu (ed) The Economics of Health in Asia Oxford University Press
4. Gertler P and Gruber J. Insuring Consumption Against Illness. (2002) American Economic Review 92(1), pp. 51-70.
5. Gertler P and O Solon Who Benefits From Social Health Insurance in Developing Countries? Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Public Economics.

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Eugene Hammel

1. On the role of families and kinship networks in pre-industrial agricultural societies: an analysis of the 1698 Slavonian census. Journal of Population Economics 14:21-49. (Hans-Peter Kohler and E.H.)

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Andrew Hildreth

1. Cross-Section Surveys," in J. Theeuwes, K. Troske et al. (Eds.) The Creation and Analysis of Employer and Employee Matched Data, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
2. D. Card, A. Hildreth, and L. Shore-Sheppard. (2003) "The Measurement of Medicaid Coverage in the SIPP: Evidence from California, 1990-1996," Journal of Economic and Business Statistics, forthcoming.

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Michael Hout

1. Gerber, Theodore P., and Michael Hout. "Tightening Up: Inter- and Intragenerational Mobility in Russia, 1988-2002."American Sociological Review 69: forthcoming.
2. Hout, Michael. "Social Mobility and Inequality: A Review and an Agenda."Forthcoming in Social Consequences of Growing Inequality, edited by Kathryn Neckerman. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
3. Evans, William R., Susan Mayer, and Michael Hout. (2003) "Inequality Effects" Forthcoming in Social Consequences of Growing Inequality, edited by Kathryn Neckerman. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
4. Gerber, Theodore P., and Michael Hout (2004). "Tightening Up: Inter- and Intragenerational Mobility in Russia, 1988-2002." American Sociological Review 69: forthcoming

• More Publications by Michael Hout

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Chad Jones

1. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending" (with Bob Hall, Version 2.0, November 1, 2004).
2. "The Steady-State Growth Theorem: Understanding Uzawa (1961)" (with Dean Scrimgeour, Version 2.0, January 25, 2005).
3. "Growth and Ideas" (Version 2.0 of a chapter for the Handbook of Economic Growth, September 1, 2004).
4. "Why Have Health Expenditures as a Share of GDP Risen So Much?" (Version 3.0, May 5, 2004).

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Charles Jones

1. C. Jones. (2001) "Why Have Health Expenditures as a Share of GDP Risen So Much?" U.C. Berkeley mimeo.
2. C. Jones. (2001) "Population and Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth," U.C. Berkeley mimeo.
3. "Population and Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth" in Aghion, Frydman, Stiglitz, and Woodford (eds.) Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps (Princeton University Press) 2003.

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james jones

1. Jones, J.H. (2005) Fetal Programming: Adaptive Life History Tactics or Making the Best of a Bad Start? American Journal of Human Biology 17, in press.

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Ronald Lee

1. Bommier, Antoine, Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller, Stephane Zuber (2004) “Who Wins and Who Loses? Public transfer accounts for US generations born 1850-2090,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 10969, December 2004
2. Ronald Lee (2004) “Quantifying Our Ignorance: Stochastic Forecasts of Population and Public Budgets,” Linda J. Waite, ed., a special supplement to v. 30 of the Population and Development Review, pp.153-176
3. Ronald Lee (2004) “How Fitness Impacts and Tradeoff Costs Shape the Optimal Life History,” prepared for a Workshop at Duke (March 11-13, 2004) and presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America in Boston, April 2004
4. Ronald Lee (2004) “Perspectives on Transfers to Children,” paper prepared for a Conference on Cross-National Comparisons of Expenditures on Children, held at Princeton, January 7-9, 2004. Forthcoming in a collection of conference papers.
5. Ronald Lee, Timothy Miller and Michael Anderson (2004) “Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 10918, November, 2004
6. Tuljapurkar, Shripad, Ronald Lee, and Qi Li (2004) "Random Scenario Forecasts versus Stochastic Forecasts," International Statistical Review 72:2:185-199
7. Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason (2004) "Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend", paper prepared for the IUSSP/Asian Meta Centre "International Seminar on the Demographic Window and Health Aging: Socioeconomic Challenges and Opportunities", Beijing, Peking University, May 10-11, 2004
8. Ronald Lee (2004) "Reflections on Inverse Projection: Its Origins, Development, Extensions, and Relation to Forecasting," in J. Vaupel, E. Barbi, S. Bertino, E. Sonnio, eds., Inverse Projection Techniques: Old and New Approaches, from Demographic Research Monographs, a series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, J. Vaupel, Editor-in-Chief (Springer-Verlag-Berlin)
9. Nan Li, Ronald Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2004) “Using the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data,” International Statistical Review 72:1:19-36
10. Chu, Cyrus C.Y. and Ronald Lee (under review) “The Evolution of Intergenerational Transfers and Longevity: An Optimal Life History Approach.” Keyfitz, Nathan and Ronald Lee (in press) "Demography," in Adam Kuper and Jessica Kuper, eds., Social Science Encyclopedia, Third Edition, forthcoming in December 2004 (New York: Routledge)
11. Ronald Lee and Hisashi Yamagata (2003) “Sustainable Social Security: What Would It Cost?” National TaxJournal, v. 56, n. 1, part 1, pp. 27-43
12. Ronald D. Lee , Andrew Mason and Timothy Miller “Saving, Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 105, pp. 339-358, September 2003
13. Li Nan, Ronald Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2004) Using the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data, International Statistical Review 72:1:19-36
14. Lee, Ronald (2004) Reflections on Inverse Projection: Its Origins, Development, Extensions, and Relation to Forecasting, in J. Vaulpel, E. Barbi, S. Bertino, E. Sonnio, eds., Inverse Projection Techniques: Old and New Approaches, from Demographic Research Monographs, a series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, J. Vaupel, Editor-in-Chief (Springer-Verlag-Berlin).
15. Lee, Ronald (2004) Quantifying Our Ignorance: Stochastic Forecasts of Population and Public Budgets, paper prepared for the Rand Summer Institute Gala Celebration for the NIA Centers for the Demography and Economics of Aging. (Word .doc file)
16. Lee, Ronald (2003) Age Structure and Dependency, in Encyclopedia of Population, Paul Demeny, Geoffrey McNicoll, eds. (New York: Macmillan Reference USA), pp. 542-545.
17. Lee, Ronald (2003) Interage Transfers, in Encyclopedia of Population, Paul Demeny, Geoffrey McNicoll, eds. (New York: Macmillan Reference USA), pp. 24-28.
18. Lee, Ronald, Michael Anderson, and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2003) Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund, a report for the Social Security Administration, January 31, 2003.
19. Lee, Ronald, Timothy Miller, and Ryan Douglas Edwards (2003) SPECIAL REPORT: The Growth and Aging of California's Population: Demographic and Fiscal Projections, Characteristics and Service Needs, Technical Assistance Program, California Policy Research Center, University of California. (Acrobat .pdf file)
20. Zhang, Jie, Junsen Zhang, and Ronald Lee (2003) Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth Journal of Development Economics 70, pp. 83-101. (Acrobat .pdf file)
21. Lee, Ronald and Hishashi Yamagata (2003) Sustainable Social Security: What Would It Cost?, National Tax Journal, v. 56, n. 1, part 1, pp. 27-43. (Acrobat pdf file)
22. Ronald Lee (2003) Demographic Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers: A Global Overview, forthcoming in Genus, 2003.
23. Ronald Lee (2003) Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends, paper prepared for a meeting on mortality forecasts, for the Swedish National Insurance Board, Lund, Sweden, September 4, 2002.
24. Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller (2002) Saving, Wealth, and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The cases of Taiwan and the United States, The Swedish Journal of Economics, v. 105, No. 3, pp. 339-357
25. Lee, Ronald and Jonathan Skinner (1999) "Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget? Longevity, Health Status, and Medical Costs in the Next Century" Journal of Economic Perspectives v.13 n.1 (Winter) pp.117-140.
26. Lee, Ronald (1999) "Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting", in Rethinking Population Projections, pp.156-190, Wolfgang Lutz, James Vaupel and Dennis Ahlburg, eds, Supplement to vol. 24 of Population and Development Review, 1999.
27. Lee, Ronald and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2000) "Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations," in Alan Auerbach and Ronald Lee, eds., Demography and Fiscal Policy (Cambridge University Press) pp. 7-57.
28. Lee, Ronald (2000) "A Cross-Cultural Perspective on Intergenerational Transfers and the Economic life Cycle," in Andrew Mason and Geroges Tapinos, eds., Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations (Oxford University Press) pp.17-56.
29. Lee, Ronald (2000) "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications" North American Actuarial Journal v.4, n.1 (January) pp.80-93.
30. Lee, Ronald and Timothy Miller (2000) "Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts" American Economic Review (May) v.90 no.2, pp. 350-354.
31. Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller (2000) "life Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition: The Case of Taiwan," in Cyrus Chu and Ronald Lee, editors, Population and Economic Change in East Asia, a supplement to v. 26 of Population and Development Review, pp. 194-222.
32. Lee, Ronald and Valentine Villa (2000) Population Aging in California, working paper of the California Policy Research Center, University of California.Y
33. Zhang, Jie, Junsen Zhang and Ronald Lee (2001) "Mortality Decline and Long Run Economic Growth," Journal of Public Economics, v. 80, no. 3, pp. 485-507.
34. Lee, Ronald and Timothy Miller (2001) "Evaluating the Performance of the Lee-Carter Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Mortality," Demography, v. 38, n. 4 (November), pp. 537-549.
35. Lee, Ronald and Ryan Edwards (2001) The Fiscal Impact of Population Aging in the US: Assessing the Uncertainties, James Poterba, ed., Tax Policy and Economy, v. 16 (NBER: MIT Press, 2002), pp. 141-181.
36. Lee, Ronald and Ryan Edwards (2001) The Fiscal Impact of Population Change IN Jane Sneddon little and Robert K. Triest, eds., Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston conference Series No. 46, pp. 220-237.
37. Lee, Ronald (2001) The Fiscal Impact of Population Aging testimony prepared for the U.S. Senate Budget Meeting, February 7, 2001 in Washington D.C.
38. Lee, Ronald (2001) Predicting Human Longevity a letter to the editor of Science, 292:1654-1655 (June 1), in response to olshansky, Carnes, and Desesquelles "Prespects for Human Longevity."
39. Lee, Ronald and Timothy Miller (2002) "An Approach to Forecasting Health Expenditures, with Application to the US Medicare System," Health Services Research, 37:5:1365-1386.
40. Ronald Lee (2002) Mortality Forecasts and linear life Expectancy Trends paper prepared for a meeting on mortality forecasts, for the Swedish National Insurance Board, Lund, Sweden, September 4, 2002.
41. Lee, Ronald (2002) Report for the Roundtable Discussion of the Mortality Assumption for the Social Security Trustees,, presentation given in Washington D.C. at the Meeting of the Social Security Trustees on September 13, 2002.
42. Bommier, Antoine and Ronald Lee (2003) "Overlapping Generations Models with Realistic Demography," Journal of Population Economics, 16:1:135-160.
43. Zhang, Jie, Junsen Zhang and Ronald Lee (2003) "Rising Longevity, education, savings, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, 70:83-101.
44. Lee, Ronald and Karen Kramer (2002) "Children’s Economic Roles in the Context of the Maya Family life Cycle: Cain, Caldwell, and Chayanov Revisited," Population and Development Review, 28:3:475-499.
45. Ronald Lee (2003) "Rethinking the Evolutionary Theory of Aging: Transfers, not Births, Shape Senescence in Social Species," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences v.100, n. 16, pp.9637-9642.
46. Ronald Lee and Hisashi Yamagata (2003) "Sustainable Social Security: What Would It Cost?" National Tax Journal, v. 56, n. 1, part 1, pp. 27-43.
47. Ronald Lee and Joshua Goldstein (2003) "Rescaling the life Cycle: Longevity and Proportionality," life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives, a supplement to Population and Development Review v. 29, pp. 183-207.
48. R. Lee, M. Anderson and S. Tuljapurkar. (2003) "Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund," A Report for the Social Security Administration. http://simsoc.demog.berkeley.edu/ Reports/LAT_SSA_Mar2003.pdf.
49. Ryan D. Edwards, Ronald D. Lee, and Tim Miller (2003) "The Growth and Aging of California's Population: Demographic and Fiscal Projections, Characteristics and Service Needs," A California Policy Research Center special report.
50. Ronald Lee (in press) "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change" Journal of Economic Perspectives—V17, N4—Fall 2003—Pages 000–000
51. Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason and Timothy Miller (in press) "Saving, Wealth, and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States," The Swedish Journal of Economics, in press, 2003.
52. Ronald Lee Demographic Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers: A Global Overview, Demographic Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers : A Global Overview, forthcoming in Genus, 2003.

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David Levine

1. G. Painter and D. Levine. (2000) "Family Structure and Youths' Outcomes: Which Correlations are Causal?" Journal of Human Resources, v. 35, n. 3, Summer 2000, pp. 524-549.
2. C. Ichniowski, D. Levine, C. olson, and G. Strauss, Eds. (2000) The American Workplace: Skills, Pay, and Employee Involvement, Cambridge University Press, 2000.
3. D. Levine. (2000) "Public Policy Implications," in C. Ichniowski, et al. (Eds.), The American Workplace: Skills, Pay, and Employee Involvement, Cambridge University Press, 2000, pp. 273-282.
4. Changes in Careers and Wage Structures at Large American Employers, with Dale Belman, Gary Charness, Erica Groshen, and K.C. O=Shaughnessy, Upjohn Institute, Kalamazoo MI, forthcoming, 2001.
5. Daddies, Devotion, and Dollars: How Do They Matter for Youth? With Gary Painter. Forthcoming at the American Journal of Economics and Sociology.
6. "Changes in the Employment Contract," with Gary Charness. IIR W.P. 70. Forthcoming at Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.
7. "Choosing the Right Parents: The Changing Importance of Family Background in Determining Income and Education." IIR W.P. 72. Revision requested from the Industrial and Labor Relations Review.
8. Are Investments in Daughters Lower When Daughters Move Away? Evidence from Indonesia, with Michael Kevane. Under review at Demography.
9. "Reinventing Disability Policy," working paper 65, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley, 1999. (Top 10 Download for SSRN Legal and Employment abstracting services.)
10. The Effects of Parental Death on Children’s School Enrollment, with Paul Gertler and Minnie Ames.
11. When Can Indonesians Insure Poor Health? The Roles of Financial, Social and Family Capital, with Paul Gertler and Enrico Moretti.
12. Using the Indonesian Financial Crisis to Test Theories of Regional Insurance and Intra- Household Allocation, with Paul Gertler.

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Nan Li

1. Li,-Nan; Wu,-Zheng, Forecasting Cohort Incomplete Fertility: A Method and an Application, Population-Studies. November 2003; 57(3): 303-20
2. Li Nan, Ronald Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2004) Using the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data, International Statistical Review 72:1:19-36
3. N. li and S. Tuljapurkar. 1999. Population momentum for gradual demographic transitions. Population Studies, 53: 255-262.
4. N. li and S. Tuljapurkar. 1999. The Solution of Time-dependent Population Models. Mathematical Population Studies, 7(4): 1-19.
5. N. li, M. Feldman and S. li. 2000. Cultural Transmission in a Demographic Study: Sex Ratio at Birth in China's Future. Theoretical Population Biology, 58(2): 161-172.
6. N. li, W. Feldman and S. Tuljapurkar. 2000. Son preference and sex ratio at birth. Mathematical Population Studies, 8: 91-107.
7. S. Tuljapurkar, N. li and C. Boe. 2000. A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries. Nature, 405: 789-792.
8. M. Anderson, S. Tuljapurkar, and N. li. 2001. How accurate are demographic projections used in forecasting pension expenditure? In Pensions: more information, less ideology, 9-29, edited by T. Boeri, et. al., Kluwer Academic Publisher, Boston.
9. S. li, M. W. Feldman and N. li. 2001. A Comparative Study of Determinants of Uxorilocal Marriage in Two Counties of China. Social Biology, 48: 125—250.
10. N. li and S. Tuljapurkar. 2002. A Formal Model of Age Structure Transitions. To appear in Riding the Waves: Populations in Transition, edited by S. Tuljapurkar, I. Pool, and V. Rufolo, Oxford/IUSSP.
11. Z. Wu and N. li. 2003. Immigration and the Dependency Ratio of a Host Population. Mathematical Population Studies, 10: 21-39.

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Andrew Mason

1. Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller, 2003. Saving, Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States Scandinavian Journal of Economics 105(3): 339-57
2. Mason, Andrew and Georges Tapinos, eds., Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000).
3. Mason, Andrew and Tim Miller, "Dynasties, Intergenerational Transfers, and lifecycle Income," in A. Mason and G. Tapinos, eds., Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000).
4. Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Tim Miller, 2001. "life-Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition in East Asia," Population and Development Review (26) 194-222.
5. Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Tim Miller, 2001. "Saving, Wealth, and Population" Population Does Matter: Demography, Poverty and Economic Growth. Nancy Birdsall, Allen C. Kelley and Steven W. Sinding, eds. (Oxford: Oxford University Press).
6. Mason, Andrew and Naohiro Ogawa, 2001. "Population, Saving, Labor Force, and Japan’s Future" Japan’s New Economy: Continuity and Change in the 21st Century, edited by Magnus Blomström, Byron Gangnes, and Sumner La Croix (Oxford: Oxford University Press).
7. Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Tim Miller, 2001. "Saving, Wealth, and the Demographic Transition in East Asia," Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, Andrew Mason, ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press) 155-184.
8. Mason, Andrew, 2001. "Population, Capital, and Labor" Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, Andrew Mason, ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press) 209-228.
9. Mason, Andrew, 2001. "Population and Economic Growth in East Asia" Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, Andrew Mason, ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press) 1-32.
10. Mason, Andrew, ed., 2001. Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized (Stanford: Stanford University Press).
11. Lee, Sang-Hyop and Andrew Mason, forthcoming. "Aging and old-Age Support Systems: Issues and Reforms", Cho, Lee-Jay, and Yoon Hyung Kim, eds, A New Paradigm for Social Welfare in the New Millennium. Seoul: Korea Development Institute.
12. Mason, Andrew, forthcoming. "Economic Demography", in Handbook on Population, Michael Micklin and Dudley Poston, eds., Klewer Academic/Plenum Publishers.
13. Mason Andrew and Sang-Hyop Lee, forthcoming. "Population aging and the extended family in Taiwan: A new model for analyzing and projecting living arrangements," Demographic Research.
14. Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Gerard Russo. forthcoming. "Demography of Aging Across Asia" (Ch. 2), in H. Yoon and J. Hendricks, Handbook of Asian Aging (Amityville (NY): Baywood Publishing Co.)
15. Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller, forthcoming. "From Transfers to Individual Responsibility: Implications for Savings and Capital Accumulation in Taiwan and the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

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Daniel McFadden

1. McFadden, Daniel, " Individual Subjective Survival Curves", with L. Gan and M. Hurd, NBER Working Paper No. 9480, January 2003
2. McFadden, Daniel, "Subjective Mortality Risk and Bequests", with L. Gan, G. Gong and M. Hurd, NBER Working Paper No. 10789, September 2004
3. "Computing Willingness-to-Pay in Random Utility Models," in J. Moore, R. Riezman, and J. Melvin (eds.), TRADE, THEORY AND ECONOMETRICS: ESSAYS IN HONOUR OF JOHN S. CHIPMAN, Routledge: London, 1999.
4. "Comments on Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar's 'Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations,'" in Alan Aurbach and R. Lee (eds.) DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND FISCAL PoliCY, Cambridge University Press:Cambridge, 2001.
5. " Predictors of Mortality Among the Elderly," with M. Hurd and A. Merrill in D. Wise (ed.) THEMES IN THE ECONOMICS OF AGING, University of Chicago Press: Chicago, 2001.
6. "Comment on 'Incentive Effects of Social Security Under an Uncertain Disability Option'", in D. Wise (ed.) THEMES IN THE ECONOMICS OF AGING, University of Chicago Press: Chicago, 2001.
7. "Response Behavior in Surveys of the Elderly: Experimental Evidence from Internet Surveys" with Joachim Winter, Conference Draft, March 2001.
8. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Tests for Direct Causal Paths between Health and Socioeconomic Status", with P. Adams, M. Hurd, A. Merrill, and T. Ribeiro, JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, Vol 112, Issue 1, 3-56, 2003.
9. "Response" , with P. Adams, M. Hurd, A. Merrill, and T. Ribeiro, JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, Vol 112, Issue 1, 129-133, 2003.
10. " Individual Subjective Survival Curves", with L. Gan and M. Hurd, NBER Working Paper, January 2003.

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Edward Miguel

1. E. Miguel. (2003) "Comment on: 'Social Capital and Growth'" (by B.R. Routledge and J. von Amsberg), Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 50, pp. 195-198.
2. E. Miguel. (2003) "Poverty and Witch Killing," under revision in Review of Economic Studies.

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Douglas Miller

1. Bertrand,-Marianne; Mullainathan,-Sendhil; Miller, Douglas, 2003. Public Policy and Extended Families: Evidence from Pensions in South Africa. World-Bank-Economic-Review. 2003; 17(1): 27-50
2. D. Miller. (2000) "Individual morbidity and aggregate characteristics," working paper, Princeton University, June 2000.
3. M. Bertrand, D. Miller, and S. Mullainathan. (2001) "Public policy and extended families: Evidence from South Africa," working paper, March 2001.
4. J. Meer, D. Miller, and H. S. Rosen. (2001) "Causality in the health-wealth nexus," working paper, Princeton University, August 2001.
5. D. Miller. (2001) "Income inequality and mortality in the U.S.: Aggregate data and micro relationships," working paper, U.C. Berkeley, November 2001.
6. D. Miller. (2001) "What underlies the black-white infant mortality gap? The importance of birthweight, behavior, environment, and health care," working paper, U.C. Berkeley, November 2001.
7. S. Lam, D. Miller, R. Rosenberg, and R. Scheffler. (2002) "Social capital and health in Indonesia," working paper, U.C. Berkeley, June 2002.
8. E. Edmonds, K. Mammen, and D. Miller. (2002) "Rearranging the family? Household composition responses to large pension receipts in South Africa," working paper, updated September 2002.
9. D. Miller and C. Paxson. (2002) "Relative income, race, and mortality," working paper, Princeton University, updated September 2002.
10. D. Miller and A. Paulson. (2002) "Informal insurance and moral hazard: Gambling and remittances in Thailand," working paper, updated November 2002.

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David Levine

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Timothy Miller

1. Miller, Tim and Ron Lee, 2004 "A Probabilistic Forecast of Net Migration to the United States" Report I, in "Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies", NBER Working Paper 10917.
2. Miller, Tim and Laurel Fletcher, 2004. "New Perspectives on Old Patterns Forced Migration of Haitian in the Dominican Republic, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, v. 30, No. 4, July, pp.659-679.
3. Ronald Lee, Timothy Miller, and Ryan Edwards (2003) The Growth and Aging of California’s Population: Demographic and Fiscal Projections, Characteristics, and Service Needs, a Special Report of California Policy Research Center, University of California, Technical Assistance Program.
4. Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller. "Saving, Wealth, and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States," The Swedish Journal of Economics, in press.
5. Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller. "An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to US Medicare system," Health Services Research, October.
6. Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller. "Saving, Wealth, and the Demographic Transition in East Asia," in Andrew Mason, ed., Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, East-West Center Series on Contemporary Issues in Asia and the Pacific, Stanford: Stanford University Press, pp.155-184.
7. Timothy Miller. "Increasing longevity and Medicare expenditures," Demography, Vol. 38, pp. 215-226.
8. Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller. "Evaluating the Performance of the Lee-Carter Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Mortality" Demography, v.38, n.4, pp. 537-549.
9. Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Tim Miller. "Saving, Wealth, and Population," in Nancy Birdsall, Allen C. Kelley and Steven W. Sinding, eds., Population Matters:Demography, Poverty, and Economic Growth, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 137-164.
10. Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller, "Immigration, social security, and broader fiscal impacts." American Economic Review, May, Vol. 90, No. 2.
11. Andrew Mason and Timothy Miller, "Dynasties, intergenerational transfers, and lifetime income" in Sharing the Wealth, edited by A. Mason and G. Tapinos. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
12. Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller. "life cycle saving and the demographic transition: The case of Taiwan." in Population and Economic Change in East Asia, edited by C.Y. Cyrus Chu and Ronald Lee, A supplement to Volume 26 of Population and Devekopment Review.
13. Andrew Mason and Timothy Miller. "Family and Intergenerational Transfers in Taiwan." in The Changing Family in Comparative Perspective: Asia and the U.S. Honolulu: East-West Center.
14. Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller. "The lifetime fiscal impacts of immigrants and their descendants: A longitudinal analysis." Draft of Chapter 7 for The New Americans, edited by James Smith and Barry Edmonton. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

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John Morgan

1. J. Morgan. (2000) "Financing Public Goods by Means of Lotteries," Review of Economic Studies, v. 67, pp. 761-84.

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Steven Orzack

1. Orzack, S.H. 2004. A molecular-genetic analysis of population structure in two parasitic wasps, Nasonia giraulti and N. vitripennis, in preparation
2. W. G. S. Hines and S. H. Orzack. 2004. Evolutionary game dynamics and the evolution of strategy variation: will an ESS evolve?, submitted
3. Orzack,S. 2004. Longevity. The biology and demography of lifespan. Population Studies58(2) 247-248
4. Orzack, S.H., and S. Tuljapurkar. 2001 Reproductive effort in variable environments or environmental variation is for the birds. Ecology 82: 2659-2665.
5. Orzack, S.H., and E. Sober. 2001 Adaptation, Phylogenetic Inertia, and the Method of Controlled Comparisons. Pages 45-63 in: Adaptationism and Optimality, edited by S. H. Orzack and E. Sober, Cambridge University Press.
6. Orzack, S.H., and E. Sober. 2001 Adaptationism and Optimality, Cambridge University Press.
7. Orzack, S.H. 2001. Sex ratio and Sex allocation. Pages 165-176 in: Evolutionary Ecology: Perspectives and Synthesis, edited by Charles W. Fox, Derek A. Roff, and Daphne J. Fairbairn, Oxford University Press.
8. Orzack, S.H. 2002. Using Sex Ratios: the Past and the Future. Pages 383-398 in: Sex Ratio Handbook, edited by Ian Hardy, Cambridge University Press.
9. Orzack, S.H. 2003. How and why do aging and lifespan evolve? Population and Development Review 29 (Supp.): 19-38.
10. Orzack, S.H., lissargue, S., Essioux, L., Subramanyan, L., and D. Gusfield. 2003. Estimation of gametic frequencies from phase-unknown genotypes and the testing of linkage disequilibrium. Genetics, in revision.
11. Orzack, S.H. 2004. Commentary on "Dynamical models as paths to evidence in ecology" by M. L. Taper and S. Lele. In: The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Empirical, Statistical, and Philosophical Considerations, edited by M. L. Taper and S. Lele, University of Chicago Press, in press.

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Robert Page

1. Rueppell O, Fondrk MK, Page RE Jr. 2005. Biodemographic analysis of male honey bee mortality. Aging Cell. 2005 Feb;4(1):13-9
2. Ruppell O, Pankiw T, Page RE Jr. 2004. Pleiotropy, epistasis and new QTL: the genetic architecture of honey bee foraging behavior. J Hered. 2004 Nov-Dec;95(6):481-91.
3. Rueppell O, Amdam GV, Page RE Jr, Carey JR. 2004. From genes to societies. Sci Aging Knowledge Environ. 2004 Feb 4;2004(5):pe5. Review
4. Pankiw, T., and R. E. Page. 1999. The effect of genotype, age, sex, and caste on response thresholds to sucrose and foraging behavior of honey bees (Apis mellifera L.). Journal of Comparative Physiology A 185: 207-213.
5. Tarpy, D. R. and R. E. Page. 2000. No behavioral control over mating frequency in queen honey bees (Apis mellifera L.): implications for the evolution of extreme polyandry. The American Naturalist 155: 820-827.
6. Getz, W. M., R. E. Page, and P. T. Starks. In press. A tribute to William Donald Hamilton (1936-2000). Annales Zoologici Fennici.
7. Erber, J. and R. E. Page. 2001. The evolutionary dynamics of social organization in insect societies: from behavior to genes and back. Santa Fe Institute Bulletin 16: center section, 6 pages.
8. Hasselmann, M., M. K. Fondrk, R. E. Page, and M. Beye. 2001. Fine scale mapping in the sex locus region of the honey bee (Apis mellifera). Insect Molecular Biology 10: 605-608.

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John Quigley

1. J. Quigley. (1999) "Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles," International Real Estate Review, v. 2, n. 1, pp. 1-20.
2. J. Quigley, S. Raphael, and E. Smolensky. (2001) Homelessness in California, San Francisco, CA: Public Policy Institute of California, 2001.
3. J. Quigley and S. Raphael. (2001) "The Economics of Homelessness: A View from North America," European Journal of Housing Policy, v. 1, n. 3, pp. 323-337.
4. J. Quigley, S. Raphael, and E. Smolensky. (2001) "Homeless in California, Homeless in America," Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 83, n. 1, pp. 97-51.
5. P. Englund, M. Hwang, and J. Quigley. (2002) "Hedging Housing Risk," Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, v. 24, n. 1, pp. 163-197.
6. J. Quigley. (2002) "Homeowner Mobility and Mortgage Interest Rates: New Evidence from the 1990s," Real Estate Economics, v. 30, n. 2, pp. 345-364. An earlier version of this paper appears as "Monetary Policy and Homeowner Mobility: The Effects of Mortgage Interest Rates," Economics Bulletin, v. 4, n. 1, pp. 1-11.
7. J. Mansur, J. Quigley, S. Raphael, and E. Smolensky. (2002) "Examining Policies to Reduce Homelessness Using a General Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," Journal of Urban Economics, v. 53, pp. 316- 340.

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Olav Rueppell

1. Heinze, J., Hartmann, A. & Rüppell, O. (2001) Sex allocation ratios in the facultatively polygynous ant, Leptothorax acervorum. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology 50: 270-274.
2. Rüppell, O., Heinze, J. & Hölldobler, B. (2001) Complex determination of queen body size in the queen size dimorphic ant Leptothorax rugatulus (Formicidae: Hymenoptera). Heredity 87: 33-40.
3. Rüppell, O., Heinze, J. & Hölldobler, B. (2002) Intracolonial patterns of reproduction in the queen-size dimorphic ant Leptothorax rugatulus. Behavioural Ecology 13: 239-247.
4. Rüppell, O., Heinze, J. & Hölldobler, B. (2002) Sex ratio variation in the facultatively polygynous and queen size dimorphic ant Leptothorax rugatulus. Ethology, Ecology and Evolution 14: 53-67.
5. Rüppell, O., Schäffler, L. & Hölldobler, B. (2002) Lack of plasticity in the behaviour of queens of the ant Leptothorax rugatulus Emery (Formicidae: Hymenoptera). Journal of Insect Behavior 15: 447-454.

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William Satariano

1. Satariano WA, MacLeod KE, Cohn TE, Ragland DR. 2004.Problems with vision associated with limitations or avoidance of driving in older populations. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2004 Sep;59(5):S281-6
2. Nagel G, Wedding U, Hoyer H, Rohrig B, Katenkamp D. 2004.The impact of comorbidity on the survival of postmenopausal women with breast cancer. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. 2004 Aug 6;
3. Ragland DR, Satariano WA, MacLeod KE. 2004. Reasons given by older people for limitation or avoidance of driving. Gerontologist. 2004 Apr;44(2):237-44.
4. Barnes DE, Tager IB, Satariano WA, Yaffe K. 2004. The relationship between literacy and cognition in well-educated elders. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2004 Apr;59(4):390-5.
5. Satariano WA, Silliman RA. 2004. Comorbidity: implications for research and practice in geriatric oncology. Crit Rev Oncol Hematol. 2003 Nov;48(2):239-48
6. Satariano WA. Comorbidities and cancer. In: Hunter CP, Johnson KA, Muss HB (Eds.) Cancer in the Elderly. New York: Marcel Dekker, 2000:477-499
7. Satariano WA, Haight TJ, Tager IB. Reasons given by older people for limitation or avoidance of leisure time physical activity. J Am Geriatr Soc 2000; 48:505-512.
8. Vaeth PAC, Satariano WA, Ragland DR. limiting comorbid conditions and breast cancer stage at diagnosis. J Geront: Med Sci, 2000;55A:M593-600.
9. Gijsen R, Hoeymans N, Schellevis FG, Ruwaard D, Satariano WA, van den Bos GAM. Causes and consequences of comorbidity: a review. J Clin Epidemiol 2001;54:661-674.
10. Westert GP, Satariano WA, Schellevis FG, van den Bos, GAM. Patterns of comorbidity and the use of health services in the Dutch population. Eur J Public Health, 2001;11:365-372.
11. Satariano WA, Haight TJ, Tager IB. living arrangements and participation in leisure-time physical activities in an older population. J Aging and Health, 2002;14:427-451.
12. Hall HI, Satariano WA, Thompson T, Ragland KE, Van Den Eeden SK, Selvin S. Initial treatment for prostate carcinoma in relation to comorbidity and symptoms. Cancer 2002;95:2308-15.
13. Sternfeld B, Ngo L, Satariano WA, Tager IB. Associations of body composition with physical performance and self-reported functional limitation in elderly men and women. Am J Epidemiol 2002;156:110-21.
14. Catalano RA, Satariano WA, Ciemins EL. Unemployment and the detection of early stage breast tumors among African Americans and Non-Hispanic whites. Ann Epidemiol 2003;13:8-15.
15. Barnes DE, Yaffe K, Satariano WA, Tager IB. A longitudinal study of cardiorespiratory fitness and cognitive function in healthy older adults. J Am Geriat Soc 2003;51:459-465.
16. Tager IB, Haight TJ, Hollenberg M, Satariano WA. Physical functioning and mortality in older women: an assessment of energy costs and level of difficulty. J Clin Epidemiol 2003;56:807-813.
17. Ragland DR, Satariano WA, MacLeod C. Reasons given by older people for limitation or avoidance of driving.
18. The Gerontologist. In press.
19. Gomez SL, Le GM, West DW, Satariano WA, O’Connor L. Hospital policy and practice regarding the collection of data on race, ethnicity, and birthplace. Am J Public Health, In press.

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David Steinsaltz

1. Steinsaltz, David R., Steven N. Evans, and Kenneth W. Wachter (2005).
2. "A generalized model of mutation-selection balance with applications to aging" to appear in Advances in Applied Mathematics.
3. Steinsaltz D. Re-evaluating a test of the heterogeneity explanation for mortality plateaus. Exp Gerontol. 2005 Jan-Feb;40(1-2):101-13. Steinsaltz D, Evans SN. Markov mortality models: implications of quasistationarity and varying initial distributions. Theor Popul Biol. 2004 Jun;65(4):319-37.
4. With Steven N. Evans: Markov mortality models: Implications of quasistationarity and initial distributions.

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Shripad Tuljapurkar

1. Ronald Lee, S. Tuljapurkar, and Ryan Douglas Edwards, 2004. Uncertain Demographic Futures and Government Budgets in the US To appear in S. Tuljapurkar and N. Ogawa, eds., Population Aging in the Industrialized Countries: Challenges and Responses.
2. Tuljapurkar, S., 2004. Stochastic dynamics of retirement systems: models and policy. "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Government Budgets in the US . " To appear in S. Tuljapurkar and N. Ogawa, eds., Population Aging in the Industrialized Countries: Challenges and Responses.
3. Tuljapurkar, Shripad, Ronald Lee, and Qi Li (2004) "Random Scenario Forecasts versus Stochastic Forecasts," International Statistical Review 72:2:185-199.
4. Li, N ; Lee, R ; Tuljapurkar, S. 2004. "Using the Lee-Carter method to forecast mortality for populations with limited data," International statistical review (Revue internationale de statistique) 72, no. 1, (2004): 19 (18 pages).
5. Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 2004. "Demography in the 21st century: Introduction," Theoretical population biology, 65, no. 4:317
6. Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 2005. "Future mortality: a bumpy road to Shangri-La?" Sci Aging Knowledge Environ. 2005 Apr 6;2005(14):pe9
7. S. Tuljapurkar and C. Boe (1999) Validation, Probability-weighted priors , and information in stochastic forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 259-271.
8. S. Tuljapurkar and C. Boe (1999) "Mortality change and forecasting: How much and how little do we know," North American Actuarial Journal, 2: 13 - 47.
9. S. Tuljapurkar (1999) "Forecasting Mortality change: Questions and Assumptions," North American Actuarial Journal, 2: 127 - 134.
10. li, Nan; Tuljapurkar, Shripad. (1999) Population momentum for gradual demographic transitions. Population Studies, Vol. 53, No. 2, Jul 1999. 255-62 pp.
11. S. Tuljapurkar and P. Wiener (2000) "Escape in time: Stay young or age gracefully," Ecological Modeling, 133: 143-159.
12. S. Tuljapurkar and Ronald Lee (2000) Demographic uncertainty and the United States OASDI fund. IN, A. Mason and G. Tapinos (Eds.), Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers Betweem Generations. Oxford University Press, pp. 195-208.
13. R. Lee and S. Tuljapurkar (2000) Population forecasting for fiscal planning: Issues and innovations. IN, Alan Auerbach and Ronald Lee (Eds.), Demography and Fiscal Policy. Cambridge University Press, pp. 7-57.
14. S. Tuljapurkar, Nan li, and Carl Boe (2000) "A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G-7 countries," Nature, 405: 789-792.
15. Li, Nan; Tuljapurkar, S. (2000) "Dynamics of time-dependent population models," Mathematical Population Studies, 2000, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 311-329.
16. M. Anderson, S. Tuljapurkar, and Nan Li (2001) How accurate are demographic projections used in forecasting pension expenditure? IN, T. Boeri, A. Borsch-Supan, A. Brugiavini, R. Disney, A. Kapteyn and F. Peracchi (Eds.), Pensions: More Information, Less Ideology. Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 9-27.
17. S. Tuljapurkar (2002) Demographic Forces in South Asia Through 2050: Population, Economy, Health. IN, M.R. Chambers (Ed.), South Asia in 2020: Future Strategic Balances and Alliances. Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College.
18. J.R. Carey and S. Tuljapurkar, Eds. (2003) "Life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological and Demographic Perspectives," Population Development Review, Supplement to Volume 23.
19. R. Lee, M. Anderson and S. Tuljapurkar (2003) "Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund," A Report for the Social Security Administration.
20. S. Tuljapurkar, C. Horvitz, and J. Pascarella (2003) "The Many Growth Rates and Elasticities of Populations in Random Environments," American Naturalist, 162: 489-502.
21. R. Lee, S. Tuljapurkar, and R. Edwards (2004) "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Government Budgets in the U.S." To appear in S. Tuljapurkar and N. Ogawa (Eds.), Population Aging in the Industrialized Countries: Challenges and Responses.
22. R. Lee, S. Tuljapurkar, and Qi Li (2004) "Random scenario forecasts versus stochastic forecasts." IN PRESS, in International Statistical Review.

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Kenneth Wachter

1. Goldstein, Joshua R., and Kenneth W. Wachter (2005). "Gaps and Lags: Relationships between Period and Cohort Life Expectancy'' under review at Population Studies.
2. Wachter, Kenneth W. (2005). "Tempo and its Tribulations," under review at Demographic Research.
3. K. Wachter. (1999) "Grade of Membership Models in Low Dimensions: Geometry and Robustness," Statistical Papers, v. 40, pp. 439-458.
4. K. Wachter. (1999) "Evolutionary Demographic Models for Mortality Plateaus ," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, v. 96, pp. 10544- 10547.
5. K. Wachter. (2001) "Biosocial Opportunities for Surveys," in C. E. Finch, K. Kinsella, and J. W. Vaupel (Eds.) Cells and Surveys: Should Biological Measures Be Included in Social Science Research?, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 329-336.
6. K. Wachter. (2003) "Hazard Curves and life Span Prospects," in J. Carey and S. Tuljapurkar (Eds.) life Span: Evolutionary, Ecological, and Demographic Perspectives, Population and Development Review, (supplement) v. 29, pp. 270-291.
7. K. Wachter. (2003) "Biodemography, Fertility, and Family Formation," in R. A. Bulatao and K. Wachter (Eds.) Offspring: Human Fertility Behavior in Biodemographic Perspective, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
8. 2003 O spring: Human Fertility Behavior in Biodemographic Perspective, edited by Kenneth Wachter and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, National Research Council, National Academy Press,Washington, D.C., March 2003.

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John Wilmoth

1. Butler RN, Warner HR, Williams TF, Austad SN, Brody JA, Campisi J, Cerami A, Cohen G, Cristofalo VJ, Drachman DA, Finch CE, Fridovich I, Harley CB, Havlik RJ, Martin GM, Miller RA, Olshansky SJ, Pereira-Smith OM, Smith JR, Sprott RL, West MD, Wilmoth JR, Wright WE. 2004. "The aging factor in health and disease: the promise of basic research on aging." Aging Clin Exp Res. 2004 Apr;16(2):104-11; discussion 111-2
2. J.R. Wilmoth and Jean-Marie Robine., 2003. "The world trend in maximum life span." In: James R. Carey and Shripad Tuljapurkar (eds.), Population and Development Review 29(Suppl.): 239-257
3. J.R. Wilmoth. "Mortality Decline." 2003 In: Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll (eds.), International Encyclopedia of Population, 2nd edition, New York: Macmillan Reference USA, Vol. 2, pp. 654-662
4. B. Jeune, A. Skytthe, and J. R. Wilmoth. (1999) "Age validation of the oldest man." In B. Jeune and J. W. Vaupel (eds.), Validation of Exceptional Longevity, Odense, Denmark: Odense University Press, pp. 173-188.
5. J. R. Wilmoth. (1999) Comment on A. R. Thatcher, "The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest age attained," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, v. 162, n. 1, p. 40.
6. S. Hoiruchi and J. R. Wilmoth. (1999) "Do the oldest old grow old more slowly?" In M. Allard, B. Forette, C. Franceschi, and J.-M. Robine (eds.), The Paradoxes of Longevity, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, pp. 35-60.
7. S. Horiuchi, S. D. Pletcher, and J. R. Wilmoth. (2000) "A general method of decomposition analysis." Population Association of America, Annual Meeting, New York, April 1999. Submitted for publication May 2000, revise and resubmit December 2000, currently under revision.
8. J. R. Wilmoth. (2000) " Demography of longevity: Past, present, and future trends," Journal of Experimental Gerontology, v. 35, n. 9-10, pp. 1111-1129.
9. L. J. Deegan, S. Horiuchi, H. Lundstrom, and J. R. Wilmoth. (2000) "Increase of maximum life-span in Sweden, 1861-1999," Science, v. 289, pp. 2366-2368.
10. M. Dennis and J. R. Wilmoth. (2001) "Social differences in older adult mortality in the United States: Questions, data, methods, and results." In J.-M. Robine et al. (eds.), Human longevity, individual life duration, and the growth of the oldest-old population, Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press.
11. J. R. Wilmoth and T. Valkonen. (2001) "A parametric representation of mortality differentials over age and time." EAPS seminar, Trends in differentials in morbidity and mortality: Analysis and explanation, Pontignano, Italy, April 2001.
12. J. R. Wilmoth. (2001) "Les modeles age-periode-cohorte en demographie." In G. Caselli, J. Vallin, and G. Wunsch (eds.), Demographie: Analyse et SynthÚse. I. La Dynamique des Populations, Paris: INED, pp. 379-397.
13. J. R. Wilmoth and P. S. Timiras. (2001) "Demographic, comparative, and differential aging." In M. R. Katlic, R. A. Rosenthal, and M. E. Zenilman (eds.), Principles and Practice of Geriatric Surgery, New York: Springer-Verlag, pp. 24-37.
14. O. Gersten and J. R. Wilmoth. (2002) "The cancer transition in Japan since 1951," Demographic Research, v. 7, n. 5, pp. 271-306.
15. J. R. Wilmoth. (2002) "Human longevity in historical perspective." In P. S. Timiras (ed.), Physiological Basis of Aging and Geriatrics, 3rd edition, Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, pp. 11-24.
16. H. Bogan, S. Brewster, M. Cohen, M. Drinkwater, E. Joyce, L. Kunkel, R. Levenson, T. T. Perls, A. Puca, and J. R. Wilmoth. (2002) "life-long sustained mortality advantage of siblings of centenarians," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 99, n. 12, pp. 8442-8447.
17. J.-M. Robine and J. R. Wilmoth. (2003) "The world trend in maximum life span." In J. R. Carey and S. Tuljapurkar (eds.), Population and Development Review, v. 29 (Supplement), pp. 239-257.
18. J. R. Wilmoth. (2003) "Mortality Decline." In P. Demeny and G. McNicoll (eds.), International Encyclopedia of Population, 2nd edition, New York: Macmillan Reference USA, v. 2, pp. 654-662.
19. 1993 J.R. Wilmoth. Computational methods for fitting and extrapolating the Lee-Carter model of mortality change. Technical report, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley.

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